Analysis of Warriors-Rockets Game on March 5th 2026.
- Kumar Venkatramani
- Mar 6
- 6 min read
I didn't get to watch the Warriors-Houston game live last evening, but caught it tape-delayed late at night.
I have almost given up on this season due to injuries — déjà vu of the Niners' football season — with almost all the front-line offensive players gone and the defense still a work in progress as our replacement youngsters are still learning the game.
There are rumblings that Draymond has become a liability without Curry. His turnovers, lack of offense, and tendency to jack up threes are making his +/- numbers look awful this year (-55 overall). But this is only half the story — he was +100 in the first 21 games when Butler and Curry were playing, and has been -155 since December 1st, while playing roughly 27 minutes per game. That is not sustainable, and he is losing minutes regularly. Steve Kerr has also benched him in late-game situations, something that would never have happened before. Shades of age catching up, perhaps — or lack of motivation — but also likely that he is playing alongside players who aren't at the same level of quick thinking. You expect the right play to be a "zig" and they do a "zag" instead.
It was in this context that I noticed the team was so beset by injuries that we had four two-way players among the ten who suited up — seven players out of a 17-man roster.
They were going up against an almost-full-strength Houston Rockets squad (3rd in the Western Conference), who were coming into the game with a 10-4 record in their last 14 games and were 20-7 at home.
There's an adage in the NBA: when a team's top players aren't playing, the stronger team mentally lets down and doesn't perform to its potential. Either the Warriors were going to get blown out by 30, or Houston would play lackadaisically, and an upset would happen.
Clearly, the latter happened. It was obvious from the first seven minutes. Houston could generate no offense, had poor shot selection, and simply weren't playing with force or intent. Houston clearly isn't as bad as the game made them look.
But there were a few things I wanted to examine. First, how does the Houston team today compare to my assessment when they acquired KD? Second, had anything changed since the last time I watched them on national TV — the San Antonio game a few weeks back?
When they acquired KD, I felt the move made sense because in critical late-game playoff situations last year, Houston lacked a go-to scorer — someone automatic who you just give the ball to and get out of the way. By and large, KD has delivered: averaging 26 points per game with 51/41/88 splits (51% on 2-pointers, 41% on 3-pointers, 88% from the free-throw line). He has also played 58 of 61 possible games, answering one of my key concerns about his durability — he had played only 62, 75, and 47 games in the three prior seasons.
The third thing I was watching was whether KD would mesh with coach Ime Udoka. Coaching philosophy and player capability have to go hand in hand, and by and large, this seems to be working well. Nothing obviously broken on the offensive end, at least in the games I've watched.
Now to my second point — observations from the San Antonio game: when KD got double-teamed and passed out of it, Amen Thompson disappeared, Sengun didn't make himself a consistent scoring option, and on days when Sheppard, Tari Eason, and Jabari Smith are hitting threes consistently, winning is guaranteed. But when they're not, how do they respond?
In one sense, you could simplify this as "it's a make-or-miss league" — make your shots, and you win, don't, and you lose. But the answer is more nuanced. If a shot is open — meaning nobody within five feet of you — you have to convert at least a 40% clip. Superstars hit that 40% even with a hand in their face. That's what wins championships.
I also noticed they needed a true point guard — Amen Thompson wasn't consistently organizing the offense — and more three-point shooting depth.
So I watched yesterday's game with those three things in mind.
From the outset, the Warriors' game plan was clear: double-team KD every time he touched the ball. Draymond started on him one-on-one, and the moment KD put the ball on the floor and began moving, a second defender arrived. As expected, KD passed out of it — and in the first quarter, nobody was converting their open shots. There were also too many turnovers. Both improved as the game went on.
For the full game, Houston did shoot 40% from three, thanks mainly to Reed Sheppard (6-12), KD (3-5), and Josh Okogie (3-6). Side note: Sheppard has become a Warriors killer — his two highest-scoring games this season are 31 and 30 points, both against Golden State. Otherwise he averages 13 ptsw/game ;
Amen Thompson did his individual thing: 18 points, 10 rebounds (7 offensive), 5 assists.
Sengun had a poor outing until the fourth quarter and OT, when he finally started scoring. I think there may be a mental dimension here — Draymond may be in his head.
But here's what really stood out: for all the "defense-first" identity Houston has tried to build, their defense was very porous yesterday. Maybe they let their guard down, assuming the win was theirs, but still — what is going on?
These may look like isolated plays, but there's a building pattern. Bear with me:
Play 1: Late in the first quarter, KD switches onto Quentin Post and actually blocks his shot — but the ball falls to a cutting player who scores. KD's reaction suggested he was upset at Okogie for not cutting off the passing lane (though it's possible he was frustrated that his block still resulted in a score).
Play 2: Four minutes left in the fourth quarter, with both teams having gone nearly three minutes without a basket, Kerr calls a timeout. The ATO (After Timeout) play he draws up deliberately targets Houston's two weakest defenders. This was posted by a guy I follow on X called Joe Viray, who is really good at this stuff.
Play 3: In overtime, the Warriors run one of their favorite plays called - split action — Curry receives the ball at the three-point line off a hard Draymond screen and can shoot if open, drive if the big comes up, or pass to a cutter. It's bread-and-butter. Here, it is Draymond setting a hard screen for Podz, and Draymond's man Sengun has to chase all the way out to contest the three, instead gets caught in no-man's-land, and the three goes in.
Play 4: Next Warriors possession, same play — split action again. But this time, KD has picked up Draymond defensively. When the ball goes into the post (Gui Santos), KD reads the pass, and it doesn't go to Podz. Santos tries to dribble out, hits a wall, and hands it back to Podz. KD closes out hard on the potential three — but Podz attacks the dribble instead and has a wide-open lane to the basket. KD is visibly furious that backside help wasn't there. Notably, while KD yells at Jabari Smith, it's actually Sengun who is right there and doesn't step up quickly enough to stop the dunk.
Play 5: Back-to-back defensive breakdowns from Sengun — and Jabari Smith's defensive IQ, while solid individually, isn't at the level of elite help defense that these situations demand. Ime Udoka responds by pulling Sengun out for defensive possessions while keeping him in for offense. Then, on the final play, when Melton misses, Houston surrenders two offensive rebounds under the basket. Wouldn't it have been nice to have Sengun there for that defensive rebound? Shades of Chris Bosh being pulled for that critical defensive possession in the Finals (Heat vs. Spurs).
So where does it all end up? I believe they are really missing Steven Adams. He is a solid defender and would make the right reads defensively! They need him. Secondly, for all the vaunted rebounding capability that Houston has, their defensive rebounding has been pretty bad (The last play was just one example!) The Warriors had only two fewer rebounds than Houston had over the whole game. But I really thought that Steve Kerr had done a masterful job of outcoaching Ime Udoka in this game.
The Warriors are hoping to develop the younger players over the next 20 games. They are stuck in the play-in games (seed 7-10); They are unlikely to fall out of 10 and unlikely to get to 6! And so they are hoping that Curry rests and is ready for the playoffs, and maybe they win the play-in and maybe get an upset or two.
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